Envisioning Uncertain Futures - Scenarios as a Tool in Security, Privacy and Mobility Research

Content

Foreword

1 Introduction

I. Scenarios – A Methodological Tool

2 Narrative Scenarios as an Analytical Instrument

Introduction

Types of Scenarios

Narrative Scenarios

Idea Line vs. Plot Line

Decoding and Using Narrative Scenarios

Conclusion

References

3 Scenarios that tell a Story. Normative Narrative Scenarios – An Efficient Tool for Participative Innovation-Oriented Foresight

Introduction

The Process

Communication and Impact

References

4 Surprising Scenarios. Imagination as a Dimension of Foresight

Introduction

Imagination in science fiction: “What if…”

Science fiction and foresight

Wild cards: Imagining surprising events

Conclusion

References

5 Security 2025: Scenarios as an Instrument for Dialogue

Introduction

Threat scenarios

Urban Security 2025: The safe city or security as a social problem (short version)

Airport Security 2025: Adventure Airport or coping with uncertainty?

Scenarios as an instrument for dialogue

Risk perception and risk communication

The new culture of uncertainty

Politics as stakeholder

Conclusion: Security dialogues as a task of security research

References

6 Didactical Functions of Dark and Bright Scenarios: Examples from the European Transport Industry

Introduction

Horror scenarios and their function as a policy instrument

The example of “dark” scenarios for EU transport industry 1960’s-1980’s

Dark scenarios about the “American threat”

Dark scenarios about the Japanese threat

Proposing new dark scenarios for today

Conclusion

References

II. Scenarios in Practice

7 The Use of SWOT Analysis for Future Scenarios: A Case Study of Privacy and Emerging Technologies

Introduction

Scenario Process

Five scenarios for privacy and emerging technologies

Future-oriented SWOT method

Limitations and improvements

Discussion

Conclusions

References

8 The Future of Water Use: Scenarios for Water Management in Telangana - Strengthening Local Governance in the Minor Irrigation Sector

Background of the project

The Salon method

Using scenarios in the Salon method

References

9 The Future of Water Use: Construction of Scenarios in the Project

References

10 “Peace Operations 2025”: From Shaping Factors to Scenarios

Brief Summaries of the ZIF Scenarios

References

11 Anticipating New Security Threats: The FESTOS Project

Introduction

The FESTOS Project

Technology Signals of Change

Categorizing signals of change

From signals to scenarios

Conclusion

References

12 The Development of FESTOS Scenarios

Introduction

Basic challenges

The Scenarios

Methodological structure

Scenario workshop

Finalization

Indicators as a strategic instrument for security improvement

Conclusion

References

13 The FESTOS Scenarios

How to read the scenarios?

III. Synopsis

14 Reflections on how to Improve Future Scenarios

Introduction

How to start?

Challenges

Strengths

New perspectives

Complex issues – displayed in an intuitive way

Obstacles

What is the best method?

Attitude matters

How can scenarios be used and utilized?

The scenarios in this book

References

15 Conclusion

About the Authors